Thursday, October 30, 2008
Election Map
I think it is time I share my predictions with the world for the 2008 election. (So I can be praised or mocked.) I used ABC News to generate this map. The one thing to note is that Obama's tally should be increased by 1 and McCain's total down by 1 (383-155), since I believe he will win 1 electoral vote from Nebraska (they split electors by congressional district). I'm happy to defend my picks in conversation via the comments.
Friday, October 24, 2008
2008 Election Preview
So I have dropped the ball on this blog. I am sorry for taking away this vital resource from you. So let's get to talking about some stuff. I am in a class this semester called General Election 2008. It's pretty swell, and I have an assignment that will sum up a lot of stuff for you so as soon as I finish that I'll post it. Also I will be releasing my predictions of for the Presidential Election at midnight Nov. 3 (There is a contest at my college and I don't want people stealing my picks.) So since you read this, thanks. Make sure to keep Obama's grandma in your thoughts and prayers. He took 36 hours off the campaign trail to visit her.
Tuesday, June 3, 2008
The Brilliant “No Decision Tonight” & Dream Ticket
Hillary Clinton’s decision to not drop out or show any sign of giving up has sparked a lot of debate from the pundits. CNN’s “best political team on television” seemed to think that she should have been more conciliatory towards Barack Obama.
At first I agreed with them and was very angry that the former first lady continued the fight. However, if she endorsed him tonight some of her backers could be upset that she was “forced” out. She made a point to say that she wanted everyone that voted for her to be respected and heard. So when she comes along to the decision to support Obama her supporters should feel better about the process (Notice no if, she will).
This “no decision” should create another media day for Mrs. Clinton’s concession speech. It also keeps the focus of the media on Clinton and Obama, and not on McCain. (Who is that old guy they keep showing every once in a while?)
With all that talk about what Senator Clinton is going to do, the Dream Ticket talk is still buzzing. Here’s my 2 cents about that Dream Ticket:
It won’t happen. Clinton will support Obama regardless. He’ll find some compromise with her maybe a cabinet post or something added to the party platform. Clinton is a polarizing figure and Obama needs someone as VP that has military experience. McCain is going to make the election about foreign policy and having the sniper fire clips play over and over again will not help Obama. Obama Democrats hating Hillary can only continue to divide the party, so say nice things about her and make her supporters happy. Unification is more important than vilification.
At first I agreed with them and was very angry that the former first lady continued the fight. However, if she endorsed him tonight some of her backers could be upset that she was “forced” out. She made a point to say that she wanted everyone that voted for her to be respected and heard. So when she comes along to the decision to support Obama her supporters should feel better about the process (Notice no if, she will).
This “no decision” should create another media day for Mrs. Clinton’s concession speech. It also keeps the focus of the media on Clinton and Obama, and not on McCain. (Who is that old guy they keep showing every once in a while?)
With all that talk about what Senator Clinton is going to do, the Dream Ticket talk is still buzzing. Here’s my 2 cents about that Dream Ticket:
It won’t happen. Clinton will support Obama regardless. He’ll find some compromise with her maybe a cabinet post or something added to the party platform. Clinton is a polarizing figure and Obama needs someone as VP that has military experience. McCain is going to make the election about foreign policy and having the sniper fire clips play over and over again will not help Obama. Obama Democrats hating Hillary can only continue to divide the party, so say nice things about her and make her supporters happy. Unification is more important than vilification.
Brace Yourself
Obama is now the official nominee crowned by the media. (Although since he doesn’t have the pledged delegate supports he needs, it won’t really be official until the convention.) But, this new turn of events will focus the campaigns.
That means the general election is going into full swing. So “brace yourself.” Get ready for political ads to say candidate X voted for this horrible thing or voted against this really great thing. However, whenever you see such attacks you need to understand the nature of Congress.
In today’s Congress the House and Senate vote on omnibus bills, these really large “mega bills” that are hundreds of pages long. So the overall point of a bill may be something that the Congressman opposed such as welfare spending (if it was a Republican member of Congress), but on page 312 there was a section funding a hospital. Well near November expect to see the political ads condemning the Congressman for not supporting hospitals. (Just imagine the fun images a creative ad specialist could create.)
Both Obama and McCain are members of the Senate and have voting records that the candidates have already mentioned. (Obama mentions that McCain voted for the Iraq war; McCain mentioned some votes of Mr. Obama’s in his speech tonight, June 3.)
When you hear ads about this vote or that vote, do your homework. Read the newspaper, watch the news, go to sites like www.votesmart.org and find out for yourself. Don’t let the negative attacks convince you. Be an intelligent voter! The only reason these ads are still on TV is because they work. They work because you listen to them and other mud slinging. (Wait Obama is not a Muslim?)
It is important that you take the time to be a smart voter, because if you don’t know who or what you are voting for, well what’s the point? These campaigns to just get you to vote make me angry. I recently saw a T-Shirt in one of those hip youth clothing outlets that just said “Vote” on it. Please vote intelligently. The alternative is to listen to negative ads and vote against the candidate that voted against breast cancer research or had an illegitimate black baby. (That’s how Republicans nominate George W. Bush…Vote smart!)
That means the general election is going into full swing. So “brace yourself.” Get ready for political ads to say candidate X voted for this horrible thing or voted against this really great thing. However, whenever you see such attacks you need to understand the nature of Congress.
In today’s Congress the House and Senate vote on omnibus bills, these really large “mega bills” that are hundreds of pages long. So the overall point of a bill may be something that the Congressman opposed such as welfare spending (if it was a Republican member of Congress), but on page 312 there was a section funding a hospital. Well near November expect to see the political ads condemning the Congressman for not supporting hospitals. (Just imagine the fun images a creative ad specialist could create.)
Both Obama and McCain are members of the Senate and have voting records that the candidates have already mentioned. (Obama mentions that McCain voted for the Iraq war; McCain mentioned some votes of Mr. Obama’s in his speech tonight, June 3.)
When you hear ads about this vote or that vote, do your homework. Read the newspaper, watch the news, go to sites like www.votesmart.org and find out for yourself. Don’t let the negative attacks convince you. Be an intelligent voter! The only reason these ads are still on TV is because they work. They work because you listen to them and other mud slinging. (Wait Obama is not a Muslim?)
It is important that you take the time to be a smart voter, because if you don’t know who or what you are voting for, well what’s the point? These campaigns to just get you to vote make me angry. I recently saw a T-Shirt in one of those hip youth clothing outlets that just said “Vote” on it. Please vote intelligently. The alternative is to listen to negative ads and vote against the candidate that voted against breast cancer research or had an illegitimate black baby. (That’s how Republicans nominate George W. Bush…Vote smart!)
Monday, June 2, 2008
Democratic Delegate Mess
This is a very long entry…
For “Beginners,” the first section will allow you to catch up to the more recent and interesting news of Michigan and Florida. For those of you that understand all of this you can skip to the paragraph that starts “FOR THE professionals.” (Capitalized so its easy to spot.)
So the delegate situation has led to much talk about “Superdelegates.” People don’t really understand them or most things about politics, and that is because people don’t take the time to understand politics. However, in this case the American public is not at fault, because “Superdelegates have never mattered before.
Superdelegates are simple enough to understand. Basically, they are selected by the Democratic Party, which invites various high level Democratic Party leaders and other significant Democratic Party players, to cast a vote at the Democratic Nominating Convention. (Superdelegates include Democratic members of Congress, governors, party leaders, even the President and Vice President of College Democrats.)
However, all the confusion and talk about them without really addressing what a Superdelegate is, has lead to some confusion. A great thing to come out of this Superdelegate mess is a Facebook bumper sticker that claims, “Pretending to Understand Superdelegates could be the key to getting laid this summer.” (Guys, you’re welcome!)
The easy to understand part is the pledged delegates. They are chosen based on the results of primaries and caucuses. The more votes a candidate gets the more delegates they receive. This is known as proportional allocation of delegates. (This is used for the Democratic Party’s pledged delegates; the Republicans usually award all the delegates from a state to the winner of its primary of caucus. The infamous “winner-take-all)
Now normally the nominating process is virtually decided by pledged delegates so no one ever paid attention to the Superdelegates, because they never mattered. (Like an ugly girl in high school, that becomes really hot at the reunion) However, this year no candidate in the Democratic Party will win with pledged delegates alone. (Time to hit on the former ugly girl at the reunion) Therefore, Superdelegates will be needed to put the nominee over the top (likely to be Obama).
The nominating process is usually over relatively early, so Michigan and Florida wanted to be apart of the decision making process. The Democratic Party decides which states can vote earlier than the others. Some states were resentful that they were not selected/allowed to go early. (It’s always the New Hampshire and Iowa types that get to go first.)
Michigan and Florida using the conventional wisdom that the winner is decided early on wanted to get in on the action. They held their primaries early trying to gain influence, and were stripped of their delegates. The Democratic Party did this, because it wants to keep as much control as possible over the nominating process to select their candidate.
Now usually if a state violated the rules by moving up they would get a slap on the wrist, but there would be no controversy over their delegates, because the nomination would eventually be wrapped up, with a clear winner, and party unity would be the number one concern.
However, this year the race has become really close so all of sudden Florida and Michigan moving up their primaries and breaking party rules could impact the outcome of the nomination contest, because they have so many delegates.
FOR THE “Professionals,” this section is for those of you that understand politics or read the part for beginners. (Also those of you that fit into both categories.)
So last Saturday the Democrat’s Rules Committee sat down to work out the difficult process of reaching a compromise suitable to Clinton, Obama, and the Party. The decision was to seat the all Delegates, but each only casts a half vote. This decision clearly favored Obama, because Clinton had won in both states so she only got half the delegates for that.
I believe that the Democratic Party did make the right decision. They favored the candidate that was likely to win, allowed Michigan and Florida back into the nominating process, and still enforced a penalty acting as a deterrent for states to break the rules in the future. (No state should want the negative attention that Michigan and Florida received in this nominating process.)
The scary moment at the Rules Committee for the Democrat Party (which was broadcast live on C-SPAN, CNN, and other major networks) was when Harold Ickes, a top Clinton campaign official, declared that Mrs. Clinton reserved the right to take the fight to the Credentials Committee. If she does that, the Democratic Party’s nomination process will be dragged out even further.
However, I strongly believe that If Obama doesn’t have enough delegates after South Dakota and Montana vote on Tuesday (with results coming in after prime time), then Wednesday during prime time he will hold a press conference announcing the support of enough Superdelegates to put him well over the top.
Nomination Conclusion Reflections
The defining moment in the campaign, the turning point, the deciding factor, or whatever you want to call it was when John Edwards endorsed Obama. It negated the big Clinton win in West Virginia and gave Obama plenty of prime time news coverage.
However, It was important for Clinton to stay in the race until all the states vote this year, so her supporters do not feel she was mistreated (making party unification easier). The key for Democratic Party success in November is for Clinton to drop out gracefully after Obama gets enough of the pledged delegates and Superdelegates to win.
For “Beginners,” the first section will allow you to catch up to the more recent and interesting news of Michigan and Florida. For those of you that understand all of this you can skip to the paragraph that starts “FOR THE professionals.” (Capitalized so its easy to spot.)
So the delegate situation has led to much talk about “Superdelegates.” People don’t really understand them or most things about politics, and that is because people don’t take the time to understand politics. However, in this case the American public is not at fault, because “Superdelegates have never mattered before.
Superdelegates are simple enough to understand. Basically, they are selected by the Democratic Party, which invites various high level Democratic Party leaders and other significant Democratic Party players, to cast a vote at the Democratic Nominating Convention. (Superdelegates include Democratic members of Congress, governors, party leaders, even the President and Vice President of College Democrats.)
However, all the confusion and talk about them without really addressing what a Superdelegate is, has lead to some confusion. A great thing to come out of this Superdelegate mess is a Facebook bumper sticker that claims, “Pretending to Understand Superdelegates could be the key to getting laid this summer.” (Guys, you’re welcome!)
The easy to understand part is the pledged delegates. They are chosen based on the results of primaries and caucuses. The more votes a candidate gets the more delegates they receive. This is known as proportional allocation of delegates. (This is used for the Democratic Party’s pledged delegates; the Republicans usually award all the delegates from a state to the winner of its primary of caucus. The infamous “winner-take-all)
Now normally the nominating process is virtually decided by pledged delegates so no one ever paid attention to the Superdelegates, because they never mattered. (Like an ugly girl in high school, that becomes really hot at the reunion) However, this year no candidate in the Democratic Party will win with pledged delegates alone. (Time to hit on the former ugly girl at the reunion) Therefore, Superdelegates will be needed to put the nominee over the top (likely to be Obama).
The nominating process is usually over relatively early, so Michigan and Florida wanted to be apart of the decision making process. The Democratic Party decides which states can vote earlier than the others. Some states were resentful that they were not selected/allowed to go early. (It’s always the New Hampshire and Iowa types that get to go first.)
Michigan and Florida using the conventional wisdom that the winner is decided early on wanted to get in on the action. They held their primaries early trying to gain influence, and were stripped of their delegates. The Democratic Party did this, because it wants to keep as much control as possible over the nominating process to select their candidate.
Now usually if a state violated the rules by moving up they would get a slap on the wrist, but there would be no controversy over their delegates, because the nomination would eventually be wrapped up, with a clear winner, and party unity would be the number one concern.
However, this year the race has become really close so all of sudden Florida and Michigan moving up their primaries and breaking party rules could impact the outcome of the nomination contest, because they have so many delegates.
FOR THE “Professionals,” this section is for those of you that understand politics or read the part for beginners. (Also those of you that fit into both categories.)
So last Saturday the Democrat’s Rules Committee sat down to work out the difficult process of reaching a compromise suitable to Clinton, Obama, and the Party. The decision was to seat the all Delegates, but each only casts a half vote. This decision clearly favored Obama, because Clinton had won in both states so she only got half the delegates for that.
I believe that the Democratic Party did make the right decision. They favored the candidate that was likely to win, allowed Michigan and Florida back into the nominating process, and still enforced a penalty acting as a deterrent for states to break the rules in the future. (No state should want the negative attention that Michigan and Florida received in this nominating process.)
The scary moment at the Rules Committee for the Democrat Party (which was broadcast live on C-SPAN, CNN, and other major networks) was when Harold Ickes, a top Clinton campaign official, declared that Mrs. Clinton reserved the right to take the fight to the Credentials Committee. If she does that, the Democratic Party’s nomination process will be dragged out even further.
However, I strongly believe that If Obama doesn’t have enough delegates after South Dakota and Montana vote on Tuesday (with results coming in after prime time), then Wednesday during prime time he will hold a press conference announcing the support of enough Superdelegates to put him well over the top.
Nomination Conclusion Reflections
The defining moment in the campaign, the turning point, the deciding factor, or whatever you want to call it was when John Edwards endorsed Obama. It negated the big Clinton win in West Virginia and gave Obama plenty of prime time news coverage.
However, It was important for Clinton to stay in the race until all the states vote this year, so her supporters do not feel she was mistreated (making party unification easier). The key for Democratic Party success in November is for Clinton to drop out gracefully after Obama gets enough of the pledged delegates and Superdelegates to win.
Sunday, June 1, 2008
Scott McClellan
A lot has been said about the Former Press Secretary Scott McClellan writing that book that trashed the administration. First things first if you know nothing about the story, the cliff notes is that McClellan White House loyalist trashes the administration; conservatives reject him and liberals embrace him.
One thing sticking out to me is the criticism that he is just doing it for money. Now conservatives are supposed to be in favor of the free market, so I cannot see why they would denounce a guy trying to make a buck on the free market. I know they are upset that the book is trashing them, but rebut the guy’s points not the guy.
Another problem people have with this book is that he wrote it so late. They ask why he didn’t speak out against the administration then. The obvious answer that seems to get ignored is that it was this guy’s job to make sure only the administration’s message got out. Anything less would have probably forced him out of his job.
However, my liberal friends we cannot all of sudden embrace this man who helped mislead the country to war with Iraq. Few will deny that this war has been costly and hurt the image of America abroad. Although in the scheme of things, McClellan's and the Bush administration's mismanagement has greatly helped the Democratic Party.
One thing sticking out to me is the criticism that he is just doing it for money. Now conservatives are supposed to be in favor of the free market, so I cannot see why they would denounce a guy trying to make a buck on the free market. I know they are upset that the book is trashing them, but rebut the guy’s points not the guy.
Another problem people have with this book is that he wrote it so late. They ask why he didn’t speak out against the administration then. The obvious answer that seems to get ignored is that it was this guy’s job to make sure only the administration’s message got out. Anything less would have probably forced him out of his job.
However, my liberal friends we cannot all of sudden embrace this man who helped mislead the country to war with Iraq. Few will deny that this war has been costly and hurt the image of America abroad. Although in the scheme of things, McClellan's and the Bush administration's mismanagement has greatly helped the Democratic Party.
Monday, May 26, 2008
FOX NEWS!
Fox News makes me very angry. What upsets me about their coverage is that they claim to be "fair and balanced" when they are clearly not. I almost freaked out listening to their coverage of the Democrats claiming now that Hilary would win the popular vote, without mentioning the fact that she is only winning if the count includes Florida and Michigan. It is odd that Fox News would support Clinton, and argue that she is more elect-able than Obama, when for the longest time Hilary was a dream for the Republicans to run against.
I also want to take time to give McCain some credit. Fox News was trying to get him to attack Obama for Rev. Wright’s comments, but McCain flat out rejected that Obama shared the controversial views of Rev. Wright. Both candidates now are trying to go above the partisan politics and shame on Fox News for trying to bring America back into that. When I was at a mock convention, I got my picture in a local paper for holding up a sign. And my resentment towards Fox News helped me decide to post that picture.
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